Winter weekends for catering establishments have long ceased to be just a “low season”. This is a period in which the weather, the behavior of guests, the format of the space and operational solutions converge at one point and either bring down revenue or, conversely, create conditions for its growth. Cold weather, snowfall, and sudden temperature fluctuations are not a background, but an active factor that changes the structure of demand, duration of visits, and consumption channels.
Weather As A Demand Factor, Not An Excuse
Extreme weather conditions directly affect sales, and the numbers confirm this. On some snowy weekends, comparable sales decreased by up to 40% compared to regular weekends, while on calm winter days, growth was limited to only 2–4%. During periods of extreme cold, more than 150 establishments temporarily stopped working, losing not only traffic, but also the loyalty of guests, especially those who had planned their outings in advance in the same way they would plan logistics like a chauffeur service in Dubai to avoid unnecessary exposure to harsh conditions.
However, the weather does not destroy demand, it redistributes it. Off-premise formats, including delivery and takeaway, account for about 9.5% of revenue and become critically important in winter. On cold weekdays, shipments increased by 12%, and orders for hot meals increased by more than 20%, while cold-related items lost up to 42% of demand. This clearly shows that menus and channels should adapt to the real behavior of guests, and not to abstract seasonal expectations.
Menu, Format And Space Economy
In winter, guests use the space differently. They stay longer, rush less, and more often perceive the establishment as a place of shelter and comfort. This makes intentional dwell time a key economic parameter. Thoughtful seating layouts, privacy, flexible seating and a sense of comfort directly affect productivity per square foot and the average check.
The menu is no longer universal during this period. There are anchor categories, comfort food, savoury offers and freestyle dining formats. Small plates, desserts, brunch options, and dishes that are easy to combine increase the average order value and make demand more predictable. During bad weather, sales of certain categories, such as pizza, grew by 30–40%, and after heavy snowfalls, orders for specific items increased by more than 130%. This is not an accident, but the result of an emotional choice based on a sense of warmth and stability.
Guest Experience, Loyalty, And Repeat Visits
The winter guest is particularly sensitive to the quality of the experience. In conditions of cold and limited mobility, service, speed, convenience and consistency become important. Seamless payments, reduced wait times, and simple online ordering scenarios are becoming not an advantage, but a basic expectation.
At the same time, the frequency of visits remains high. About a quarter of the guests visit the establishments daily, and more than half at least once a week. This creates a favorable environment for customer retention, loyalty programs, and lifetime value growth. On snowy days, there was a 9–15% increase in tips, which indicates a higher level of empathy and engagement of guests in difficult conditions.
Market And Structural Changes
The catering sector continues to grow and transform. Forecasts up to 2030 assume double-digit growth rates in certain formats, and the organized segment accounts for more than 60% of the total growth. The industry’s contribution to GDP is about 1.9%, which is lower than in developed markets and indicates significant scaling potential.
Food courts provide an average of 8–10% of the revenue of shopping malls, and in strong locations up to 15%, confirming the value of formats focused on dense traffic and a variety of choices.
Winter eventually becomes not a problem, but a test of the maturity of the business model. Those who know how to work with the menu, space, channels, and guest experience as a single system turn the cold season into a source of sustainable growth.
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